Conference tournament time is upon us, and for savvy sports bettors, this presents a unique opportunity to capitalize on predictable public betting tendencies. Historically, the general public demonstrates a consistent bias: they gravitate towards teams exhibiting recent success against the spread (ATS), often overlooking more nuanced factors. This ingrained behavior, however, can be leveraged to our advantage.

Bet Labs data, compiled since 2005, reveals a compelling pattern. During the regular season, teams covering at least three of their last five games receive a majority of spread tickets in a significant 65.9% of matchups against opponents who’ve covered one or fewer of their past five. This predictable behavior is well-understood by oddsmakers, who strategically adjust lines to exploit this tendency, often resulting in unfavorable odds for those following the crowd.

The dynamic shifts considerably during the postseason, specifically in conference tournaments. While the regular season shows a clear preference for teams with strong recent ATS records attracting the majority of bets, this trend weakens significantly in the high-stakes environment of conference play. In fact, Bet Labs data indicates that teams with strong recent ATS form receive a majority of bets in only 52.2% of postseason games.

Why this change? The heightened stakes and desperation to extend the season introduce a crucial element: the underdog effect. The public often perceives postseason games as more competitive, leading to a greater willingness to bet on underdogs, even if those underdogs have a poor recent ATS record. This contrasts sharply with the regular season, where bettors often prefer backing a favored team with a proven track record.

This shift in public betting behavior is again exploited by oddsmakers, but in a different manner. Instead of inflating the line to counter the public’s preference for recent winners, they are less likely to do so in the postseason. This creates a valuable window of opportunity for discerning bettors: backing teams with strong recent ATS performance against opponents lacking such success within the context of conference tournaments.

The data supports this strategy. Since 2005, teams with a strong recent ATS record (at least three covers in their last five games) have performed remarkably well against opponents with poor recent ATS form (one or fewer covers in their last five games), achieving a 288-220-11 (56.7%) ATS record. A hypothetical $100 bettor consistently following this strategy would have generated a substantial profit of $5,358 over this period. This simple system isn’t just profitable; it’s remarkably consistent, boasting a .500 or better ATS record for 13 consecutive postseasons.

This system has started the 2018-19 conference tournament season strongly at 2-0 ATS. Here are two additional games to consider applying this strategy to:

• Saint Peter’s (+2.5) vs. Marist (5 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
• Indiana State (-3) vs. Valparaiso (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.