The Milwaukee Bucks (43-14), boasting the NBA’s best record, are a dominant force. Their success is evident in their league-leading statistics: fifth in offensive efficiency, first in defensive efficiency, and a commanding +9.8 point differential. This impressive performance translates to significant betting success.
All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, a leading MVP candidate (+170 odds), is a key factor in the Bucks’ dominance. With +1000 odds, betting on the Bucks to win the NBA championship presents intriguing value for some. However, their success extends beyond the court. Before the All-Star break, no NBA team proved more profitable against the spread (ATS) than Milwaukee. Their impressive 34-20-3 (63.0%) ATS record translates to a substantial $1,209 profit for a $100 bettor throughout the season.
The Bucks’ popularity is undeniable. They received 50% or more of spread tickets in a remarkable 48 out of 57 games leading up to the All-Star break. Their upcoming game against the Boston Celtics on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT) is sure to attract significant betting action, making them a popular choice. But the critical question remains: Can this remarkable ATS success continue after the All-Star break?
To explore this, we delved into the Bet Labs database, analyzing the pre- and post-All-Star ATS records of every NBA team over the past five seasons. The correlation coefficient was employed to determine any relationship between a team’s pre- and post-break ATS performance.
A correlation coefficient of 1 signifies perfect correlation, -1 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 0 represents no correlation. Our analysis revealed a correlation coefficient of -0.002 between pre- and post-All-Star ATS records. This essentially indicates no significant correlation, suggesting bettors shouldn’t assume the Bucks will maintain their 60%+ ATS winning percentage.
Against-the-spread Regression: A Statistical Reality
Achieving a 60% or higher ATS win percentage before the All-Star break, as the Bucks have, is exceptionally rare. Our database shows that only approximately 6% of teams achieved this feat over the past five seasons. While the instinct might be to assume teams like Milwaukee will sustain their success, statistical analysis suggests otherwise.
Teams that historically covered 60% or more of their games ATS before the All-Star break (averaging 63.0% ATS) saw a significant regression, covering only 47.3% of their games afterward. This regression isn’t limited to high-performing teams; it also affects underperforming teams.
For example, the Phoenix Suns, struggling with a 25-34 (42.4%) ATS record—the least profitable team in the league this season—can potentially benefit from this statistical trend. Historically, teams that covered 40% or less before the All-Star break (averaging 38.0% ATS) managed a significantly improved 54.1% ATS performance post-break.
Several factors contribute to this ATS regression, but a primary driver is the adjustments made by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks keenly observe public betting patterns, identifying popular teams and adjusting lines accordingly. This strategic line inflation makes it harder for consistently successful ATS teams to continue covering and conversely, makes it easier for historically poor ATS teams to occasionally hit the winning ticket.
As the second half of the NBA season commences, remember that past ATS performance is not a reliable predictor of future success. Statistical regression is a significant factor impacting both the best and worst ATS teams in the league. Expect adjustments and surprises.
This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.