• The 151st Kentucky Derby will thunder across the Churchill Downs track on Saturday, May 3rd.
• Amidst the favorites, several intriguing longshots present compelling betting opportunities in “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.”
• Discover our top three picks for Kentucky Derby longshots in 2025, offering potentially lucrative payouts.

The thrill of betting on a longshot in the Kentucky Derby is unmatched. The potential for significant returns from a relatively small wager makes it a captivating aspect of the race. The allure is amplified by recent history: Mystik Dan’s 18-1 victory in 2024, Country House’s stunning 30-1 upset in 2019, and the legendary 80-1 triumph of Rich Strike in 2022, all serve as testaments to the possibility of a longshot victory. For those new to horse racing betting or seeking a refresher, our comprehensive horse racing guide offers invaluable insights on how to effectively bet on the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby 2025: Identifying Promising Longshots

While Journalism currently holds the frontrunner position at +300 odds, followed closely by Sovereignty at +500, the landscape offers significant value for those willing to explore the longer odds. Journalism’s favorable post position (8, with a history of nine wins from that spot, including Mage in 2023) is likely to attract substantial betting, while Sovereignty’s post position (18, with only two previous wins from that location) presents a more challenging scenario. This disparity creates an opportunity for shrewd bettors.

The inherent unpredictability of horse racing, especially in a high-stakes event like the Kentucky Derby, makes longshots a tempting proposition. Let’s delve into three horses offering particularly enticing value in 2025.

Luxor Cafe: Triple Crown Lineage and International Prowess

This 3-year-old Japanese colt, a son of the Triple Crown-winning American Pharoah (2015), presents a compelling case at 15-1 odds. While no Japanese horse has ever conquered the Kentucky Derby, Luxor Cafe’s pedigree and international success shouldn’t be overlooked. His impressive performance in the Fukuryu Stakes, winning by five lengths and completing the final furlong in a blistering 12 seconds, showcases his exceptional speed and acceleration. With four wins in his last four races and a second-place finish in his six starts, Luxor Cafe’s consistent performance and favorable post position (7) make him a strong contender.

Tiztastic: A Finisher with Churchill Downs Experience

At 20-1 odds, Tiztastic, son of the 2020 Kentucky Derby runner-up Tiz the Law, offers significant value. His recent victory in the Louisiana Derby highlights his closing speed, a crucial asset in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. His two prior races at Churchill Downs – a second-place finish and a third-place finish – demonstrate his familiarity with the track, increasing his potential for success. With eight races under his belt, Tiztastic’s experience adds to his appeal as a longshot pick.

Citizen Bull: The Bob Baffert Factor

The return of renowned horse trainer Bob Baffert, after serving a suspension, adds intrigue to Citizen Bull’s prospects at 20-1 odds. Baffert’s track record, including two Triple Crown winners, lends significant credibility to Citizen Bull’s potential. While his unfavorable post position (1) presents a challenge, his speed and Baffert’s expertise cannot be discounted. Citizen Bull’s impressive winning streak, followed by a fourth-place finish in a strong Santa Anita Derby field (featuring Journalism), suggests he might be capable of exceeding expectations.

Our Top 2025 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Luxor Cafe (+1500)

Remember to gamble responsibly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and doesn’t constitute financial advice. Good luck at the Derby!